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CARBON DIOXIDE & GREENHOUSE EFFECT.

Dangers to environment of build-up of carbon dioxide in atmosphere, emission & exchange, statistics, impact of temperature increase, future.

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CARBON DIOXIDE AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Scientists all over the world are growing increasingly concerned about the steady buildup of trace gases in the atmosphere. Presently, the most abundant trace gas in the atmosphere is carbon dioxide (CO2). This has been due primarily to the use of fossil fuels. Several studies have concluded that CO2 emissions may alter the radioactive balance of the earth, increasing the global temperature and dramatically changing global climate (Jager, "Floating" 6).
The "greenhouse theory," which states that increases in CO2 will warm the earth, was first developed by scientists before the turn of the century. This theory holds that CO2 and other "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere allow the sun's ultraviolet and visible radiation to penetrate and warm the earth, with the

Thus,increasing soil losses increase the amount of CO2 emitted (Bach 66).Controlling Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions The earth's atmosphere has already deteriorated beyond the point ofrepair. "Forests: A Tool to Moderate Global Warming." Environment Jan./Feb. This is based on the widely held belief that the toplayers of the oceans, which serve as the main repository of carbon notretained in the atmosphere, will become saturated. This also leads to deforestation, yet another problemthat contributes to the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, andto higher energy demands to keep the cities running efficiently.Economic Development The Gross National Product (GNP) is used as an index of economicgrowth of a country. "Anticipating Climatic Change: Ways of Averting the CO2 Problem." Environment Sept. Population size and growth areimportant factors in the future atmospheric content of carbon dioxidebecause it plays a role in determining future demands in energy and landresources. The current understanding of the greenhouse effect, however, assumesthat if all other factors in the greenhouse theory are held constant,changing the composition of the atmosphere by adding large quantities ofCO2 and other greenhouse gases will warm the earth. The American sycamore stores approximately 75 tonsc/km2/yr9. Even with current uncertainties, aninitial effort to estimate the range of sea level rise concluded thatincreases of anywhere from about 48 to 36 cm (2 to 12 ft.) are possible inthe next 12 years (Jager, "Anticipating" 14). In contrast to these effects, increases in atmospheric CO2 are likelyto enhance photosynthesis and decrease moisture requirements for plantgrowth (Revkin 68). Theenhancement of the natural greenhouse warming due to increases inatmospheric CO2 concentrations is a direct result of human activity. Reidel Publishing, 1984.Jager, Jill. Works CitedBach, Wilfred. As a result of deforestationmore CO2 is allowed to escape into the atmosphere (Sedjo 15). Of this amount5 percent remains in the atmosphere. Stack gases are the gases that areemitted when fossil fuels are burned. 1986: 6-9/38-4 .Revkin, A. Though trees are helpful inthe depletion of the atmospheric level of CO2, they only serve as atemporary relief of the problem, since trees only absorb CO2 during theirgrowing periods. In 1975industrialized countries accounted for about 8 percent of the globalincome while developing countries only accounted for 2 percent of theworld's wealth. Most of this energy demand is met today through the useof fossil fuels. There are two problems that aregenerally associated with this method: 1) its economic practicability(which is dependent upon the additional energy required) and 2) thetremendous amount of CO2 that has to be removed and disposed. An ocean can store up to 2 gigatons of CO2. Presently, themost abundant trace gas in the atmosphere is carbon dioxide (CO2). The magnitude of theseeffects, and whether they are positive or negative, depends to a largeextent on how quickly these changes occur or on our ability to delaychanges in climate and how successfully global society anticipates andadjusts to them (Sedjo 15).Future Atmospheric Content of Carbon Dioxide The future concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere isdependent upon several sociopolitical factors: population growth,settlement patterns, economic development, future energy use and thedegradation of the forest and soil.Population Growth The human population is increasing exponentially. Since fossil fuels represent such athreat to the world's atmosphere, it is necessary to find alternativesupplies of energy that emit less CO2. However, if suchan increase of fossil fuel consumption was to take place, there could be anoticeable increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Today about one-fifth of the earth is covered byforest. The pace and magnitude of global warming are highly related to theamount of carbon monoxide emitted from fossil fuels and retained in theatmosphere. In industrialized countries, economicgrowth can be diverted into service industries, causing relatively littleharm to the environment, while in developing countries economic growth canbe quite destructive to the environment. Thesuccess of a tremendous reforestation effort could, however, be nullifiedbecause the planting of new enormous forest areas would reduce the albedo(the ratio of reflected to incoming solar radiation, or reflectivity) overlarge areas, and this could add to the warming effects of the CO2, due tothe increased absorption of solar radiation. More peoplemoving into the urban areas will necessitate the expansion of urban areasinto rural areas. This hasbeen due primarily to the use of fossil fuels. Reforestation will not remove CO2 from the earth'satmosphere for good, but it will give us more time to find more permanentsolutions (Bach 2 6).Filtering Carbon Dioxide out of Stack Gases Another way to reduce the amount of CO2 emitted into the Atmospherewould be to filter CO2 from stack gases. Organic soils lose an estimated . These gases allow visible andultraviolet radiation from the sun to penetrate the earth'ssurface, but absorb some of the infrared energy that isreradiated. N. In the future, the amounts of CO2 emitted into theatmosphere can be reduced by finding alternatives to fossil fuel,reforestation, filtering CO2 out of waste gases, and storing CO2 in theocean or water plants.Finding Alternatives to Fossil Fuels The combustion of fossil fuels accounts for most of the CO2 emittedinto the atmosphere. The "greenhouse theory," which states that increases in CO2 will warmthe earth, was first developed by scientists before the turn of thecentury. This percentage is called the airborne fraction or retentionratio. The carbon distributed through this cycleplays an important role in the ecological balance of the atmosphere,biosphere and the oceans. This paper willdiscuss the recent trends in the emissions and exchange of CO2 in theenvironment, give a description of how it warms the earth and the effectsof rising temperature, and finally, discuss the future atmospheric contentand policies to control the emissions of CO2.Emission & Exchange of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere The trend of rising atmospheric levels of CO2 since the IndustrialRevolution is well documented. Scientists have used recent data onworldwide fuel usage, rates of deforestation and reforestation, and ratesin atmospheric CO2, to get an estimate value of .4 to .6 for the airbornefraction (Bach 74). The rate at which CO2 is transferred into the ocean depends onfour factors: 1) the speed of the transfer of the CO2 from the atmosphereinto ocean surface water; 2) the absorptive capacity of the ocean inchemical equilibrium; 3) the transport of the CO2 from the surface of thewater to the deep sea; and 4) the CO2 transport through biologicalprocesses. This capacity is in turn dependent on such variables asthe production of food, raw materials and energy, political conditions andnot least, the influence of the environment and climate. In developing countriessuch as Mexico City, Seoul and Manila, urbanization is expected to risefrom 3 percent in 198 , to 6 percent in 2 3 (Bach 49). But such ahigh growth is unlikely, due to the depletion of the amount of recoverablefossil fuels as a result of environmental protection laws. Some early estimates claimed that as much as 2 gigatons (2 billion tons) of carbon dioxide are released annually from changes in theland-use patterns. The only limitingfactor of the extent to which this growth will reach is the earth'scarrying capacity. The capacity of theocean to absorb CO2 is also diminished as temperatures rise. However, this increase in the growth rate will not soothe thedisparities of the poorest regions. This translates into a .6-.8 percentannual CO2 increase. Sinceall other factors, such as population growth, settlement patterns, andeconomic development, seem to point toward a rise in the demand of energyit is safe to assume that a rise in CO2 levels will also occur (Bach 8).Degradation of Forest and Soil The destruction of forest and soil affects the carbon cycle, whichhas a severe impact on the entire ecosystem. This means that productivity of many crops is likely tobe enhanced, if there are no changes in agricultural practices. According to theurbanization trends of developing countries in the past, researcherspredict that by the year 2 , a city such as Mexico City will have grownto the ungovernable number of about 32 million inhabitants. Fossil fuels are fuels stored in theearth's crust, which come from plants or animals of the geological past andhave stored the solar energy in the form of chemical energy (Bach 336).They include coal, oil and natural gas. Warming and expanding oceans and melting ice and snow on landwill lead to a major rise in sea level. However, in some situations adjustments maynot be possible. Most parts ofthe world are likely to suffer from such changes and other parts are likelyto benefit. For example, new strains of seedsadapted to changed CO2 levels and climate would have to be bred. Solar power is not as efficient as fossil fuels and in thewake of the Chernobyl incident, nuclear energy represents a tremendousthreat.Reforestation Reforestation is intended to help return the CO2 cycle to a state ofequilibrium. The carbon content of soil isreduced by about 4 percent as a result of removing the original plantcover. News & World Report 29 Sept. Scientists estimate that the CO2 removal cost at about $2 /tonCO2. Therefore, this should be our first line of attack intrying to delay the greenhouse effect. One hundred and fourteen years later, in 1924, the world'spopulation passed the two billion level, and 37 years later, in 1961, itreached the three billion level, and four billion in 1975 after only 14years. The fuel mixes used to meet this demand in energy will determinea large percentage of the future amount of carbon dioxide which will beemitted into the atmosphere, since some fuels produce more carbon dioxidethan others. An alternative to this is to burnfossil fuels in pure oxygen, rather than air, since the entire stack gasthen consists of CO2 and H2O and could be entirely removed withoutpretreatment (Bach 2 1-2 2).Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Ocean or Water Plants The water hyacinth, a globally distributed fresh water plant, canstore about 6, tons C/km2 (eight times as much as the Americansycamore). Scientists have concluded that it is too late to stop the menacinggreenhouse effect, but we can delay its effects in order to lessen itsseverity. By theyear 2 3 fossil fuels are expected to account for 7 percent of the energysupplied to the world (Jager, "Anticipating" 3 ). A point can thus be reached atwhich the only effect of the CO2 control system is the reduction of thetotal efficiency of the power plant without a net reduction of CO2emissions. The ocean is constantly absorbing more and more CO2 from theatmosphere. Our Threatened Climate. Scientists have predicted that by the year 2 , the world'spopulation will reach an astounding 6.4 billion people. Gus Speth,former chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality, summarized the CO2problem best when he said, "The responsibility for the CO2 problem is ours- we should accept it and act in a way that recognizes our role as trusteesof the earth for future generations" (Bach 7 ). This prediction isbased on past population growth rates. The largest sources of uncertainty are thelack of information on feedback influence of clouds, ice reflection, andother factors (Jager, "Floating" 8). A new forest with an area of seven million km2 would be neededto absorb the estimated 2 billion tons of CO2 emitted each year (Sedjo17). Since CO2 is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere,through controlling the amounts of CO2 emitted in the future we will delaythe greenhouse effect. In future, this fraction of CO2 emissions retained in the atmosphereis likely to increase. Conclusion Based on the preceding evidence, warming of the lower atmosphere overthe next century is inevitable. Although both solar and nuclear poweremit far less CO2 than fossil fuels, they fall short when compared tofossil fuels. We mustnow decide whether we wish to expose ourselves unprepared to thepotentially grave effects of changes in climate that may take place in thenear future, or whether we wish to do something about it while there isstill time. CARBON DIOXIDE AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT Scientists all over the world are growing increasingly concernedabout the steady build-up of trace gases in the atmosphere. However,the assumption that all other factors affecting the climate will remainconstant is not reasonable. At about 181 the world's populationwas one billion. Inevitably, though, a warmer climate could change present ecosystemsdramatically. A CO2 filtersystem reduces the total efficiency of a power plant. If the climate changes drastically, it will probablyaffect nearly the entire range of human activity. 1989: 73-74.----------------------- 17 "Floating New Evidence in the CO2 Debate." Environment Sept. The urbanizationof developing countries is expected to increase the slums and poverty-stricken areas of these third world countries. Trees play a major role in thenatural consumption of CO2. If these adjustments are made in time, many of the consequences of aCO2 warming can be minimized. There is a tremendous difference between the GNP of anindustrialized country and that of a developing country. Economic activities such as theexploitation of natural resources, development of raw material industriesand intensification of agriculture can all be damaging to the environment.Researchers believe that an increase in the GNP will lead to increasedenergy use and thus a possible rise in carbon dioxide emission levels(Revkin 69).Future Energy Use All of the previously mentioned factors associated with the rise inthe atmosphere's content of carbon dioxide seem to point toward one thing:the future level of energy demand and the resources which will be used tomeet this demand. Water hyacinth are among many plants (like sugar cane)which could be used to absorb CO2, but scientists say it would be difficultto justify the use of plants that could be used as food for CO2 storage(Revkin 59). From these past trends scientists have concluded that the world'spopulation increases at an annual rate of 1.8 percent (Bach 4648).Settlement Patterns In the past, increasing industrialization has led to the depopulationof the countryside and an increase in urbanization. However, the burning of fossil fuels has createda new flow, due to man's activities alone. Unless precautions are taken immediately, theatmospheric content of CO2 will definitely increase. Recent measurements record atmospheric CO2 levels at 339 ppm, a sevenpercent additional increase in just over 2 years. Researchers support the deduction thatglobal warming is neither trivial nor just a long-term problem. By that time fossil fuelproduction is expected to be two to five times what it is now. While the world'spopulation is increasing, the number of people living in cities will alsoincrease. Ten million tons of phosphorous wouldincrease the deposition of an ocean to 3 million tons of organic carbon.But due to the large quantity of phosphorous needed the execution of suchprojects would not be probable (Bach 87). The considerablecosts for compression, liquefaction or solidification of the CO2 and thetransport costs must also be added. In a sense, these gases form a thermal blanketaround the earth. Each of these reservoirs constitute the stocksand flows of the carbon cycle. The level at whichthe world capacity will eventually stabilize is of great importance for theavoidance of unacceptable climatic change. Recent estimates suggest much lower rates, however, withsome researchers even suggesting that changes in land use (deforestationand reforestation) result in no net increase in atmospheric CO2 levels(Sedjo 19).The Role of Carbon Dioxide as a Greenhouse Gas The temperature of the earth is determined by a balance between theradiation it absorbs and emits. To reestablish the equilibrium of radiation, theatmospheric system increases in temperature.Consequences of Temperature Rise due to Carbon Dioxide There are many more aspects of CO2-induced changes to the environmentthan just the warmer global temperature. But this amountcould be increased by stimulating the photosynthetic production of organicmass in the water by adding large amounts of phosphorous (as Na3PO4) andnitrogen (as NaNO3) to the ocean. The physical lawsunderlying this theory are well established and straightforward. Thus, burning fossil fuels redistributes carbonfrom one reservoir to another. Changes in climate will require major adjustments inagricultural practices. This increase is due inlarge part to the approximately 16 gigatons (16 billion tons) of CO2emitted from fossil fuel consumption. In 1958, precisemeasurements of atmospheric CO2 were taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 37 billion tons. As the concentrations of these gases areincreased the incoming amount of radiation exceeds the amountleaving earth. 3. Fossil fuels, however, emit CO2 in large amounts. These effects are known collectively as the"greenhouse effect." Although the greenhouse effect is threatening to make livingconditions on earth miserable, it is also why life is livable in the firstplace. Scientists believe that by planting new forests we will be able toabsorb a large amount of the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere each year. Several studies haveconcluded that CO2 emissions may alter the radioactive balance of theearth, increasing the global temperature and dramatically changing globalclimate (Jager, "Floating" 6). An increase of thisproportion could damage many of the world's major ports, disrupttransportation, alter aquatic ecosystems, and cause majorchanges in land development patterns (Jager, "Anticipating"14-15). The atmospheric concentrations around 189 ,the beginning of the industrial period, are estimated to have been in the28 to 29 parts per million (ppm) range (Welborn 73). The effect the growth rate of the GNPwill have on the future content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere dependson the sections in which it occurs. This theory holds that CO2 and other "greenhouse" gases in theatmosphere allow the sun's ultra-violet and visible radiation to penetrateand warm the earth, with the infrared energy the earth radiates absorbedback into the atmosphere. "Endless Summer: Living with the Greenhouse Effect." Discover Oct. Carbon stored over hundreds ofthousands of years in fossilized forms may be released into the atmospherein a matter of a few centuries (Jager, "Floating" 6). Climatic change is most likely to occur whenthe airborne fraction is high. Otherbeneficial results of global warming would be the improvement of climate inhigh latitude areas, increased precipitation for some parts of the world,and reduced heating costs world-wide. Deforestation leads to soil erosion, floods,landslides and avalanches. 1986: 13-15/3 .Jager, Jill. A rise in sea level, changes inprecipitation and water availability, altered storm patterns andfrequencies, and changes in growing seasons are all significant climaticevents likely to accompany a greenhouse warming (Revkin 53). Thesereadings registered CO2 levels of 315 ppm, a 12.5 percent increase sincethe 189 s. 1988: 5 -61.Sedjo, Roger A. Theburning of fossil fuels, the deforestation of large wooded areas, andintensive soil cultivation have all contributed to the CO2 problem. Burning natural gas, for example,produces half as much CO2 per unit of energy as burning coal (Revkin 6 ).Solar and nuclear power are the two main alternative energy resources thatscientists are considering today. By reflecting or absorbing and thenreradiating certain wavelengths of the sun's radiation as it enters theatmosphere, some atmospheric elements reduce the amount of energy reachingthe earth's surface and thus decrease the global temperature. Deforestation has also come to play a major role in the CO2 problem.There are no exact estimates of the enormity of flow, however, becausethere is a lack of information on the amount of carbon dioxide stored inthe soil and rivers, and on the rectifying rates of deforestation andreforestation. If the airborne fraction is high, more CO2 emitted into theatmosphere will remain there. While the totalefficiency of the plant is being decreased, the CO2 released into theatmosphere per kilowatt-hour is increased. Boston: D. For at least the last 1 , years atmospheric CO2 naturallygenerated and consumed by animals and plants was in rough equilibrium.Without this characteristic of holding in heat the globe's mean temperaturewould be in the 4 s rather than a comfortable 59 degress Fahrenheit (Revkin53). C. By planting more plants and trees it will reduce the amount ofCO2 in the atmosphere, since trees consume CO2 during the process ofphotosynthesis. Carbon dioxide, and other atmospheric components, however, have theopposite effect. "Facing Life in a Greenhouse." U.S. With the limited knowledge that we presently have of the regionaleffects resulting from higher levels of CO2, it is impossible to predictthe net effect of these events. This plant will only grow in freshwater ponds, lakes and canals.There is 2.5 million km2 of suitable land in the tropics available to growthis plant. As the need to intensify food production increases inthe future, still more and more marginal land will be ploughed up. By the year 2 this is expected to decrease to one sixth andeventually stabilize at one-seventh in 2 2 . If this plant were to be used to absorb CO2 from the atmosphereit must be stored after it is harvested, so that the conversion to methaneis not possible. Some currently productive land may no longer be suitablefor farming because of changes in the length of growing seasons or inrainfall patterns. Likewise, if water conservation planning does notanticipate shifts in rainfall patterns, water shortages and water fluxescould reach devastating proportions. Researchers' predictions of the GNP growth rates between1975 - 2 show lower rates of growth for industrialized countries thanfor developing countries, by 3.4 percent and 4.5 percent respectfully (Bach51). 1989: 15-2 .Welborn, S. Thus, it would cost a whopping $4 billion dollars to remove the 2 billion tons of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere each year. Carbon and other elements arepreserved in these fuels. This increase in the urban population will cause a sharp increasein the energy requirements needed to run the city. In order to alleviate these effects, we must strive to reducethe gaps in our knowledge through research and at the same time takeadvantage of what we do know to initiate preventive measures. These reservoirs include the terrestrialbiosphere and our oceans. After deforestation has taken place erosion occurs and carbon boundin the soil is released into the atmosphere. However, whether an individual country benefits or is harmed by thegreenhouse effect will depend on its location, its resource and industrialbase, and most importantly, its ability to prepare and adjust to changingclimatic conditions.

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